go/product: 3G iPhone

Here is my collection of random thoughts on the forthcoming 3G iPhone.

1. It's coming in June. WWDC probably. Lots of evidence is pointing this way: lack of supply of the current models, AT&T CEO slip up, Walt Mossberg prediction, etc.

2. While 3G will be a vast improvement over EDGE, I think there are some caveats, namely coverage and power. 3G has a limited rollout (coverage), so if you are not in the right place, you'll be experiencing EDGE speeds.

Take a look at the map below. It details the data coverage in my area (San Jose, CA). Note that 3G is in a limited area, whereas EDGE is pretty much everywhere voice is.

To check 3G coverage in your area visit http://www.wireless.att.com/coverageviewer

3. Hopefully Apple has dealt with the big tradeoff: power. 3G is a power-hungry pig. New chipsets apparently are making great headway in reducing the power load, but it's not going to be pretty. The problem only gets worse in poor coverage areas, the "fringe" of 3G coverage; here the chipset or firmware (not sure who's in charge) has to make a quick decision on either dropping down to EDGE or "trying harder" in 3g mode. And there's the rub: "trying harder" is where you burn the most power and get the least bang for the buck. And because 3G is not rolled out in all areas where you'll presently find EDGE, there will be a lot of "fringe". All in all, I am all for 3g and I'm sure Apple applied their best magic to this product.

4. No doubt the 3G iPhone will run the new iPhone 2.0 software (and existing phones too). The iPhone 2.0 software is the "SDK ready" release. So new 3G iPhone will support forthcoming 3rd party applications. What's not clear, from the current SDK documentation, is how you'll know (how the application might know) what data network it's on: 3G or EDGE/GPRS. That would certainly play into a developer's decision to push more bytes in a higher bandwidth environment. Perhaps Apple will detail this to developers in the near future. What I think a lot of developers are hoping for is some way to run their applications in the background. Apple has made no provision for this, from what I can see. This means a good instant messaging app will be hard to write.

5. Will the 3G iPhone replace the current model? My guess is yes. But I guess it depends on the price point and margin structure. At some point Apple will go down-market with the iPhone, to the masses, if you will (and that will be a good day). Will the current model continue with a price cut as a down-market product? I don't think so, I think Apple will do something more like the 'iPhone nano' to go down-market.

6. Data is important: new surveys point to the fact that iPhone users are big data users. Many are overbuying their voice plans and racking up rollover minutes. 3G is needed for the iPhone considering its use model.

7. 3G and Europe. Apple will not make huge inroads into the European and Asian markets until 3G is standard. Coverage is better there and customer expectations are higher.